THE LONG TERM ECONOMICS OF TURNBULL’S NBN ARE A MESS

Amidst rising consumer dissatisfaction about Malcolm Turnbull’s second-rate NBN, a survey by Venture Insights, that was co-funded by the ACCC, has reported 30 per cent of households could abandon the NBN and switch to wireless.

 

This study comes as the 2018 NBN Corporate Plan clings to the assumption that only 15 per cent of users on Turnbull’s multi-technology mix will use wireless instead of the NBN between now and 2040.

 

This is despite a 15 per cent substitution rate right now, with a second-rate network that will become increasingly exposed to competition over the next five years.

 

It has long been understood that transformational wireless 5G services are emerging, with fibre continuing to preserve the indefinite performance and reliability edge that is needed to compete.

 

The tragedy is Turnbull has built an inferior NBN that is exposing taxpayers to risks he has spent over four years trying to deny:

 

The cost of the multi-technology mix has increased from $29.5 billion to $49 billion

 

It is more exposed to wireless competition

 

It costs more to maintain over its lifetime

It delivers slower speeds

 

It delivers a less reliable service

 

Consumer complaints have hit record highs

 

It will require expensive and wasteful upgrades that could have been avoided

 

It generates less revenue from those willing to pay for higher speeds - but the network can’t deliver

 

Further, NBN executives have confirmed the 30 year business case does not set aside any funding for upgrading the copper network:

 

 

 

This is not a multi-technology mix – it’s a mess.

 

A coherent vision for economic growth requires a long-term plan for the enabling infrastructure that will help Australia be more globally competitive.

 

Now there are even more question marks about whether Turnbull’s second-rate NBN will even pass the test of being domestically competitive.